KPMG Economics
A source for unbiased economic intelligence to help improve strategic decision-making.
What’s impacting labor market participation? Why are some sectors faring better than others? How do you separate the signal from the noise? KPMG Economics answers these questions and more, providing timely insight and analysis into the economic indicators. We monitor trends and identify potential opportunities that could impact your strategic objectives. Our perspectives look at both the short-term and long-term economic factors that are critical to guiding strategic decisions.
Our latest thinking
Mapping the Care Economy in 2026
State and industry fault lines.
The butterfly effect: Geopolitical shocks, policy uncertainty & the economic outlook
Consumers expect more inflation.
Biannual Supply Chain Report: Five Trends Shaping the Economic Landscape
From disruption to continual risk.
2026 Trade Outlook: A Herculean Effort
Tariffs are not in the rearview mirror.
Global Navigator from KPMG Economics
The Investment Opportunity Index
The great exit:
College-educated mothers of young children leaving the labor force.
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KPMG Economics distributes a wide selection of insight and analysis to help businesses make informed decisions.
Economic Coordinates
Explore analysis of key data indicators, such as job creation and the labor market, consumer spending, inflation, investment, housing and monetary policy. These combined data points are indicators of the overall health of the economy.
No results found.
Households and businesses are taking on more debt
The savings rate fell in 2025.
Consumers hibernate but inflation remains buoyant
Rate hike may be on the table.
Distortions due to government shutdown weigh on CPI
Prices at the pump moved on Middle East threats.
Consumers took on more debt to start the year
Student loans limit credit applications.
No results found.
Grim but noisy data
All the major indicators moved in the wrong direction.
A late Spring freeze
Few jobs are being created.
Job openings rise, layoffs fall
Small businesses most affected by events.
Strike derails healthcare gains
Tech, manufacturing and professional services lost jobs.
No results found.
Dovish pause, hawkish undertones
Decisions remain on a “meeting by meeting basis”
Fed splinters even further in March
Support for rate cuts and hikes.
Fed not declaring victory over inflation prematurely
Inflation still a worry.
A pregnant pause at the Fed
Voting members change.
No results found.
New home sales plunge
Inventories remain high.
Multifamily construction drove starts in January
Demand remains weak despite lower mortgage rates.
New home sales lost ground at the end of 2025
Housing to remain muted in 2026.
Housing starts spiked at the end of 2025
Harsh winter weather hit the biggest housing market.
No results found.
January construction spending weakens as uncertainty builds
Construction faces many headwinds
Industrial output outpaced expectations for February
Utility output fell as weather warmed across the country.
Durable goods order stumble
Softer reading for business investment.
Narrowing of the trade deficit could be short-lived
Deficits narrowed with Canada, Mexico, India, Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan and Thailand.
No results found.
Smaller companies and some consumers lose access to credit
Banks eased credit to firms that benefit from AI.
A tale of two economies
Lower rates will benefit parts of the economy.
Uncertain economic outlook sways bankers
Lending standards are becoming tighter.
Access to business loans tightens
A less favorable economic outlook
No results found.
Central bank scanner: Oil shock collides with monetary policy
Rate cutting plans shift.
A fair wind lifts the forecast
Quarterly LATAM economic outlook.
Central bank scanner: Central banks winding up rate-cutting cycle
Inflation lingers.
Global Economic and Geopolitical Outlook webcast
Join KPMG’s Global Economic and Geopolitical Outlook webcast on March 31, 2026 for a timely discussion with the firm’s global chief economists, global geopolitics lead, and global head of AI and digital innovation. In this 60‑minute session, leaders will gain practical insights to help translate global developments into confident, well‑timed decisions in an increasingly interconnected world.
KPMG Economics in the news:
- What $4-a-gallon gasoline means for you and the economy
“This is worrisome, especially for those who have the least ability to weather the storm,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. “Back in 2022, the unemployment rate was plummeting, we were generating hundreds of thousands of jobs a month, and a majority of Americans were believing we were in a recession,” said Swonk. “Now, we’re on the other side of that where we’re generating hardly any jobs in a month – though you don’t need to generate many jobs to hold the unemployment rate steady – but it’s a higher unemployment rate than it was back then.”
March 23, 2026 | CNN
- Home health aides epitomize a key problem in the current job market
Policy changes that cut Medicaid or weaken wage protections risk further eroding the workforce and worsening care shortages. The challenges in recruiting more home care workers could have knock-on effects for the broader labor force, said Matthew Nestler, senior economist at KPMG. “It will mean more informal, unpaid caregiving by family members, which will then mean that adult children, grandchildren, relatives will pass up career opportunities, they may reduce hours, and ultimately — as a last resort if they can’t make it work any longer — they will have to leave the labor force for some period,” Nestler said.
March 22, 2026 | Yahoo Finance
- 14% of families spend more on day care than housing. What's the fix?
KPMG senior economist Matthew Nestler links rising U.S. childcare costs to a sharp decline in employment among women ages 25 to 44 with children under 5, as many leave the workforce to provide care. Nestler quantifies the impact in 2024 as 509 million lost work hours and an estimated $8.9-$17.8 billion in lost wages, contributing to staff shortages, reduced output, burnout, and weaker productivity and margins. He notes that these dynamics depress consumption and tax revenues, creating a drag on economic growth and reinforcing childcare as a national economic issue rather than a private household problem..
March 20, 2026 | SAN
- Expert analysis on Iran war’s economic impacts
On “This Week,” KPMG chief Economist Diane Swonk, Vali Nasr and Meghan O’Sullivan discuss Iran war fallout.
March 15, 2026 | ABC TV News
- 100 Most Influential Women in Finance: Diane C. Swonk
"I'm an economic translator and storyteller," says Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. Swonk has spent more than four decades grappling with the biggest fiscal and economic questions facing America—at major banks, financial firms, and accounting giants, as well as her own consultancy. She spends her days advising the Federal Reserve and its regional banks while keeping abreast of the latest economic developments. She is fostering a talented team of economists at KPMG who are undertaking cutting-edge research on trade policy, changing labor trends, and the evolving global framework.
March 13, 2026 | Barron's
- Cracks emerged in a resilient U.S. economy before an attack on Iran drive oil prices sharply higher
“Underlying inflation pressures were already rising ahead of the war in the Middle East and are set to intensify,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said. Some Federal Reserve officials could even push for a hike in interest rates at its meeting next week, she added, though the central bank will probably stand pat.”
March 13, 2026 | The Associated Press
- Oil went over $100 again after the U.S. admitted it cannot control the Strait of Hormuz
“In the absence of a coherent U.S. strategy to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, investors are likely to focus on Iranian actions as the market driver,” UBS’s Paul Donovan said this morning. KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk worries that the conflict will drag on for up to six more months, sending oil prices north of $130 per barrel. Some analysts think it could hit $200.
March 12, 2026 | Fortune
- Economists on How Trade Policy Could Cool Prices While Slowing
Tariff policy over the last year has been erratic and the uncertainty has generated its own side effects. “We compare it to a broken traffic light at a four-way stop,” said Meagan Schoenberger, senior economist with KPMG. “When there’s a broken traffic light, cars slow down, they stop, they make U-turns and never make it to their destination at all. That’s exactly how uncertainty acts for households and firms.” Households and firms might buy fewer big ticket items and make fewer investments. Companies might hold off on hiring.
March 11, 2026 | NPR Marketplace
- Top economist says Iran war could trigger an economic ‘butterfly effect’—and keep inflation elevated for years
KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk outlines two Iran war scenarios in an Economic Compass Outlook, warning that disruptions to Gulf oil production and the Strait of Hormuz could keep oil prices elevated into 2027 and prolong U.S. inflation. Swonk’s base case assumes a weeks-long conflict with temporary closure of the strait, a subsequent easing of oil prices but a persistent risk premium, and core inflation rising to 3.3% year over year in late 2026.
March 11, 2026 | Fortune
- Fed Rate Cut Getting Harder to Justify, Economist Swonk Says
KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk says the recent surge in oil and commodities prices make it "harder and harder" to justify a Federal Reserve rate cut on "Bloomberg Open Interest.”
March 11, 2026 | Bloomberg TV
- 5 warning signs of an impending U.S. recession
Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, says the economy has proven remarkably resilient and we have fiscal stimulus that could provide a lift via a surge in tax refunds this Spring. “I live with a healthy dose of humility given the decoupling we have already seen between growth and employment. Much rests on whether affluent consumers are spooked by recent market volatility and whether the K-shaped economy narrative collapses,” Swonk said. The Fed’s quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey has found that banks continued tightening their lending standards toward the end of 2025 and into this year. In February, KPMG senior economist Meagan Schoenberger cautioned that these conditions are not expected to let up in the near term, despite recent interest rate cuts, and said that consumers and businesses “entered 2025 with a lot of momentum but could encounter obstacles later and in 2026.”
March 10, 2026 | Newsweek
- How the Middle East war could spark a recession
KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk highlighted that U.S. gasoline prices have already surged by 50 cents to $3.48 a gallon, noting the speed of the increase has shocked consumers but indicating conditions would need to deteriorate further to trigger a recession, as higher fuel costs pressure household budgets and consumer spending in an already fragile labor market and volatile energy-price environment.
March 10, 2026 | CNN
- In a rough labor market, hiring in healthcare is a consistent bright spot
KPMG senior economist Matthew Nestler identifies that more than half of recent healthcare and social assistance job gains come from low-wage home healthcare and personal care aide roles within the care economy. Nestler notes that home healthcare and personal care aides are now the most common occupation in the United States, with low wages, turnover of 80% or higher, and average pay of $34,900 per year. Nestler also emphasizes that the broader healthcare and social assistance industry remains dynamic, offering a wide range of skills, occupations, and job types even as it increasingly serves an aging population.
March 8, 2026 | YAHOO Finance
- Bulk of the Fed is in wait and see mode, says KPMG’s Diane Swonk
CNBC’s Steve Liesman and Diane Swonk, KPMG chief economist, join ‘The Exchange’ to discuss the Federal Reserve’s reaction to oil, the potential for an inflation spike and more.
March 6, 2026 | CNBC TV
- The number that moves markets every month just got a new formula. Here's what changed
"In order to get the data out quickly, they make assumptions about the pace at which new businesses are being formed, births, and new businesses that are actually failing, deaths," Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG said. Ultimately, economists say the monthly data should be looked at as a likely baseline — but not as the definitive bottom line. "The goal is to get, as you know, accurate as possible, as timely as possible. But in some cases, we find when the world shifts dramatically and we're standing on fault lines a lot these days, that ends up sort of wreaking havoc on some of the data and some of revisions," Swonk said.
March 8, 2026 | Scripps News
- HR can’t fix the economy. It can fix employee compensation
According to KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk, the resilience of the U.S. economy “feels more illusory than real.” Growth is real. So are the profits. What is not flowing is the money to the people doing the work. Organizations are capturing gains at a historic rate while employee compensation falls further behind, and workers know it. For HR leaders, that gap has a name, a face and a cost. KPMG’s February 2026 Economic Compass report, written by Swonk, notes that “preliminary data suggest we ended 2025 with robust growth but without generating jobs.” The report claims that “growth decoupled from employment” due to productivity gains, AI‑driven investment, tariff dynamics and sector‑specific job cuts, especially in government.
March 3, 2026 | HR Executive
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KPMG Economics distributes a wide selection of insight and analysis to help businesses make informed decisions.
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