KPMG Economics
A source for unbiased economic intelligence to help improve strategic decision-making.
What’s impacting labor market participation? Why are some sectors faring better than others? How do you separate the signal from the noise? KPMG Economics answers these questions and more, providing timely insight and analysis into the economic indicators. We monitor trends and identify potential opportunities that could impact your strategic objectives. Our perspectives look at both the short-term and long-term economic factors that are critical to guiding strategic decisions.
Our latest thinking
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Dog days of summer: Tariffs start to bite
How tariffs act on the economy.
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Headlines mask weakness and inflation surge
Brace for fireworks.
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Wars of the Roses: Structural change watchlist
AI will eventually help to mitigate inflationary shocks by boosting productivity growth.
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Global Navigator from KPMG Economics
Tariffs stunt global growth: Financial system instability is showing
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Construction in the crosshairs: Downside risks via shifts in trade and immigration policy
Immigrant workers helped cool excessive wage growth.
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Navigating increasingly complex supply chains: Five trends shaping the economic landscape
Inflation risks rise.
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The care crisis: Eldercare collides with childcare
The advent of GenAI and the ways it can upskill formal care providers should reduce costs and improve care.
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KPMG Economics distributes a wide selection of insight and analysis to help businesses make informed decisions.
Economic Coordinates
Explore analysis of key data indicators, such as job creation and the labor market, consumer spending, inflation, investment, housing and monetary policy. These combined data points are indicators of the overall health of the economy.
No results found.
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Debt burdens expand with student loans
Auto and credit card loans soften.
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Younger borrowers are taking on more debt
Student loan delinquencies reach 5-year highs.
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Consumer constrained, inflation accelerates
Incomes and spending are weak.
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Retail sales bounce back
Easing consumer worries helped lift June retail sales.
No results found.
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Labor market stalled in July
The labor market has slowed; no doubt about it.
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Labor market churn is low
The labor market is in a state of uneasy balance.
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Little margin for error
New college graduates are finding fewer opportunities.
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Large states report more job openings
The wage premium for switching jobs has disappeared.
No results found.
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Fed split over rate cut decision: No signals on a September cut
The challenge for the Fed would be a deterioration in employment.
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Brace for dissent
The pandemic inflation is still smoldering.
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Powell stays uncomfortably on the sidelines
The Fed’s trajectory on rates was unchanged with two cuts.
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Powell keeps head down
Forecast includes stagflation.
No results found.
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New home sales moved sideways in June
Home builders are increasingly pessimistic about sales conditions.
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Housing starts led by multifamily construction
Builders are cautiously optimistic about sales six months from now.
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New home sales plunged in May
The housing market will not support the economy during the traditionally robust spring home buying season.
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Housing starts fall sharply
Builders hit by higher costs as demand contracts.
No results found.
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Trade gap narrows
Will importers pass on costs?
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Construction spending follows a downward trajectory
Policy uncertainty continues to drag on the construction sector.
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Durable goods orders retreat
Timing a rate cut is complicated.
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Industrial production expanded in June
Survey of manufacturers shows every sector has been affected by tariffs.
No results found.
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Uncertain economic outlook sways bankers
Lending standards are becoming tighter.
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Access to business loans tightens
A less favorable economic outlook
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Banks are tightening credit
Banks tightened lending standards at year-end.
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Loan demand weakens
There is reason for the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates.
No results found.
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Latin America slows in the second half of 2025
Tariffs are the wild card.
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Look for weaker growth in Latam in 2025
Fiscal sustainability remains a concern.
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Five key considerations as US faces port strike
45,000 dockworkers on the East Coast and Gulf Coast are poised to strike on October 1st unless a last-minute deal is brokered.
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Latin America: Growth outlook hampered by sticky inflation
Inflation progress will slow.
KPMG Global Economic Outlook
Register now for the KPMG Global Economic Outlook webinar scheduled for June 5th. This session will feature regional Chief Economists, the Global Geopolitics Lead, the Global Trade and Customs leader, along with senior advisors from KPMG, offering an insightful quarterly briefing designed specifically for executive decision-makers.
KPMG Economics in the news:
- U.S. stocks rise, with Nasdaq reaching record high, on strong earnings and economic data
In May, retail sales fell more than expected. "A relaxation in consumer worries and improvement in sentiment prompted households to open their wallets," said Ken Kim, senior economist at KPMG. "The strength in the June report was broad-based with many categories posting gains."
July 18, 2025 | USA Today
- Who's really paying for tariffs — foreign exporters or U.S. businesses?
That index can show a lot about who bears the cost of tariffs. The Import Price Index measures prices when imports arrive at the border. “And so, it happens before there any taxes and fees applied to it through customs,” said Meagan Schoenberger, senior economist with KPMG. Schoenberger said that can show how tariff costs are shared. That’s because a foreign company that exports to the U.S. might decide to lower its prices if it’s worried that tariffs will make its products too expensive. “The foreign exporter doesn’t want to lose their whole market, so maybe they start discounting,” said Schoenberger.
July 17, 2025 | NPR Marketplace
- Recession Risk Seen Cooling Even Amid Turmoil on Tariffs
Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG US, cautioned that official economic indicators, which combine actual data from surveys with estimates, often struggle to capture inflection points. "As good as our stats are, they just weren't made for these kinds of very large moves in policy that cause a knee-jerk reaction," Swonk said. "It makes it even harder to read the tea leaves."
July 14, 2025 | International Business Times
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KPMG Economics distributes a wide selection of insight and analysis to help businesses make informed decisions.
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