KPMG Economics
A source for unbiased economic intelligence to help improve strategic decision-making.
What’s impacting labor market participation? Why are some sectors faring better than others? How do you separate the signal from the noise? KPMG Economics answers these questions and more, providing timely insight and analysis into the economic indicators. We monitor trends and identify potential opportunities that could impact your strategic objectives. Our perspectives look at both the short-term and long-term economic factors that are critical to guiding strategic decisions.
Our latest thinking
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Biannual Supply Chain Report: Five Trends Shaping the Economic Landscape
From disruption to continual risk.
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Navigating an erosion in trust
Lessons from the water’s edge
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2026 Trade Outlook: A Herculean Effort
Tariffs are not in the rearview mirror.
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Global Navigator from KPMG Economics
The Investment Opportunity Index
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The great exit:
College-educated mothers of young children leaving the labor force.
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KPMG Economics distributes a wide selection of insight and analysis to help businesses make informed decisions.
Economic Coordinates
Explore analysis of key data indicators, such as job creation and the labor market, consumer spending, inflation, investment, housing and monetary policy. These combined data points are indicators of the overall health of the economy.
No results found.
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Consumers took on more debt to start the year
Student loans limit credit applications.
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Winter weather forced shoppers to stay home
Tax refunds will help support spending.
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Fire & ice in 2025
Solid growth, hotter inflation and cooler labor market; IEEPA tariffs illegal .
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Headline masks lingering inflation
Domestic auto makers have been hurt by tariffs.
No results found.
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Strike derails healthcare gains
Tech, manufacturing and professional services lost jobs.
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Breakeven for payrolls could slip
Worker shortages in healthcare.
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Payrolls revised down in 2025, rebounded in January
Long-term unemployment ebbed.
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Fewer job openings but low layoffs
Aggregate layoffs remain at historically low levels.
No results found.
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Fed not declaring victory over inflation prematurely
Inflation still a worry.
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A pregnant pause at the Fed
Voting members change.
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Hawkish cut by the Fed
Fed risks losing inflation-fighting credibility.
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Brace for more dissents from the Fed
Large tax refunds will spur spending.
No results found.
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New home sales lost ground at the end of 2025
Housing to remain muted in 2026.
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Housing starts spiked at the end of 2025
Harsh winter weather hit the biggest housing market.
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Home sales show signs of recovery
Affordability focuses on demand but supply is still tight.
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Housing starts slump
Rising rents could boost multifamily.
No results found.
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Slight blip up in construction
Bright spot remains data centers.
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Trade gap widened with Asia
High-frequency data signaled more imports.
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Beyond planes: AI, data centers and rebound in vehicles drive orders
Firming outlook for heavy manufacturing.
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Big jump in factory utilization for January
Manufacturing lost 88,000 jobs in 2025.
No results found.
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Smaller companies and some consumers lose access to credit
Banks eased credit to firms that benefit from AI.
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A tale of two economies
Lower rates will benefit parts of the economy.
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Uncertain economic outlook sways bankers
Lending standards are becoming tighter.
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Access to business loans tightens
A less favorable economic outlook
No results found.
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A fair wind lifts the forecast
Quarterly LATAM economic outlook.
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Central bank scanner: Central banks winding up rate-cutting cycle
Inflation lingers.
Global Economic and Geopolitical Outlook webcast
Major policy decisions are converging in the next few weeks. They will help shape your operating environment throughout 2026. Join KPMG's Global Economic & Geopolitical Outlook webcast on Wednesday, December 17 for a 75-minute briefing to understand how these dynamics interact and what they could mean for your organization.
KPMG Economics in the news:
- The viral ‘Ghost GDP’ essay predicting a devastating AI doom loop is a warning to CEOs as they decide how much work to automate
Fortune examines concerns raised in a viral essay predicting a future “Ghost GDP” driven by AI-driven productivity gains that fail to translate into broad economic demand. KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk warns of an “undercurrent of betrayal” in the labor market, noting profits are rising even as compensation declines. She cautions that companies announcing AI-enabled layoffs before efficiency gains materialize “could prove penny-wise and pound-foolish,” highlighting risks of eroding trust and weakening economic resilience.
February 24, 2026 | Fortune
- Swonk warns profit–pay divergence is fueling instability and deepening public distrust
KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk is warning that the record post‑WWII gap between corporate profits and labor’s share of GDP is creating an “undercurrent of betrayal” across the U.S. economy. Swonk links the divergence to rising social and economic instability, noting that the wealthiest 20% of households have driven nearly all spending growth since the pandemic while most Americans struggle with basics such as housing, food and insurance. She says generative AI and tariff volatility are deepening job insecurity, with CEOs already citing AI to justify freezes and layoffs — risking backlash before productivity gains appear.
February 23, 2026 | Fortune
- Trump brings in new 10% tariff as Supreme Court rejects his global import taxes
President Trump has imposed a new 10% global tariff to replace ones struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court, calling the ruling "terrible" and lambasting the justices who rejected his trade policy as "fools.” The Supreme Court, decision was a major victory for businesses and U.S. states that had challenged the duties, opening the door to potentially billions of dollars in tariff refunds. In recent weeks, hundreds of firms have filed lawsuits contesting the tariffs, in a bid to get in line for a refund. But the decision by the majority does not directly mention refunds, likely handing back the question of how that process might work to the Court of International Trade. Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, warned that the cost of litigation could make recouping funds difficult for smaller firms. "Unfortunately, I'd say curb your enthusiasm, although I understand the desire for relief," she said.
February 21, 2026 | BBC
- What the Supreme Court tariffs ruling means for consumers and businesses
MS NOW reports that although IEEPA‑based tariffs were struck down, overlapping duties may limit short‑term price relief. Refund logistics remain unclear. KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk cautions reimbursements could become “a nightmare,” especially for small firms with limited documentation resources, and notes that several alternative tariff authorities remain available to policymakers. “Small firms are not likely to fare as well as large firms due to the paperwork, time and potential for additional legal challenges by the administration on refunds,” Swonk said.
February 20, 2026 | MS NOW
- Multifamily housing starts jumped to highest level of 2025 in December
There was no real recovery in the housing market in 2025, according to Matthew Nestler, senior economist at KPMG. “Despite the uptick in starts and permits at year-end, builders continue to grapple with rising construction costs, tariff and economic uncertainty and hesitant buyers,” Nestler wrote on LinkedIn. “We expect residential investment to remain weak this year; falling interest rates in the back half will help stimulate the sector.” Nestler also noted that January and February 2026 numbers could be weak due to unusually bad winter weather across the South, the country’s largest housing market.
February 18, 2026 | MultiFamily Dive
- Why Americans feel left behind by a growing economy
Economic output and the stock market are surging, consumers are spending big and the post-pandemic recession that many expected never materialized. But many feel terrible about their finances, with debt at all-time highs, and the majority of Americans incorrectly believe the country is in an economic slowdown. It’s thematically similar to the “vibecession,” a term popularized in 2022 to explain the disconnect between solid economic data and negative consumer sentiment readings exiting the pandemic. It can also draw comparisons to the “K-shaped economy,” a phrase illustrating how Americans can feel vastly different depending on their income bracket. “I’ve never seen anything like it,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. “I’ve been doing this for 40 years. And that’s a long time to never see anything like this.”
February 18, 2026 | CNBC
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KPMG Economics distributes a wide selection of insight and analysis to help businesses make informed decisions.
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