- Venture activity remained strong after an exceptional first half
- AI captured a large share of investment attention
- Capital expanded into compute, energy, manufacturing and physical AI
- Secondaries strengthened as a core liquidity option
- Fundraising favored established managers and larger vehicless
US VC investment remained strong in Q3’26, with $98.4 billion invested across 3,626 deals, despite a decline from the exceptional totals recorded in the first half of the year. AI continued to attract significant capital, with investor interest expanding beyond models and applications into infrastructure, computing power and energy.
AI investment expands across the supporting ecosystem
AI remained the leading theme in United States venture investment, but the focus continued to broaden beyond models and consumer applications. Investors increasingly targeted the infrastructure and capabilities required to support AI at scale, including compute, semiconductors, data centers, energy generation, advanced manufacturing, robotics and defense. This wider ecosystem approach reflects both demand for capacity and a search for durable, differentiated opportunities. Outside AI-related areas, investment remained more selective, with greater emphasis on revenue traction, defensibility and a credible path to scale.
Liquidity options develop as fundraising stays concentrated
The United States exit environment remained relatively stable, even as some anticipated listings moved later. Public-market activity continued to improve compared with recent years, while acquisitions and secondary transactions provided additional liquidity pathways. Secondaries are increasingly viewed as a core part of the venture market rather than a fallback option, particularly for investors seeking positions in companies that remain private longer. Fundraising also improved, but capital continued to favor established managers and larger vehicles, while first-time funds faced a much more challenging environment.
Physical AI and defense gain momentum
Investor attention is moving toward technologies that connect AI with the physical world. Robotics, autonomous systems, logistics and advanced manufacturing are attracting interest because they can address practical industrial needs and support broader productivity gains. Defense technology is also drawing more capital amid geopolitical uncertainty, cybersecurity concerns and greater focus on government demand. Together, these themes reinforce a shift toward capital-intensive technologies with clear strategic relevance, specialized capabilities and potential barriers to entry.
Trends to watch for in Q4’26
AI is expected to remain the leading focus for United States venture investors, with increasing attention on companies that address constraints across the broader ecosystem. Semiconductors, compute capacity, energy and manufacturing are likely to remain important as demand for infrastructure grows. Physical AI should also gain momentum across robotics, autonomous systems, logistics and defense. Investors are expected to remain selective outside the strongest themes, prioritizing revenue traction, defensibility and measurable value. Liquidity conditions may continue to improve through public listings, acquisitions and secondary transactions, while fundraising is likely to remain concentrated among established managers and larger funds.
Venture Pulse Q3’26
Explore the latest deals, sector shifts and venture capital trends through the third quarter of 2026.
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Carolina de Oliveira
Global Lead of Emerging Giants, KPMG International and Partner and Private Enterprise Leader KPMG Brazil and South America Cluster
KPMG in Brazil