Our Nordic PE sector team shares insights on PE deal volumes in key sectors across the Nordics.
Key takeaways from Q4, 2023:
- Aggregate Q4/’23 deal volume continued on a downward trend in the Nordics driven by significant decline in VC activity, which saw a nearly 50% drop in YoY levels, leading to the lowest level in 12-month rolling volume since 2020.
- Buyout deal volume also declined, dragging the 12-month running aggregate lower, and to a level comparable to that of Q1/’21.
- PE buyout deal activity varies to some extent between the Nordic countries, as activity marginally improved in Sweden and was stable in Finland, but weak in Norway and Denmark.
- Deal activity was lower across all major sectors except industrial manufacturing. Reported quarterly deals across sectors were at their lowest since 2020. The tech sector saw the most significant nominal and proportional QoQ drop.
- PE fundraising was active in Q4/’23, both in terms of number of funds and fund size, compared to previous quarters. Five buyout funds, totaling > €2.4b and four VC funds, totaling > €180m, were closed in Q4/’23.
- The deal space in general is likely to remain under pressure in early 2024, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties and high interest rates.
- Many PE sponsors still appear to be holding mature assets longer in anticipation of higher valuations. However, moving forward into 2024, activity is expected to recover, as funds continue to have ample dry powder. Sweden appears to be leading the way with numerous sell-side preparations underway and processes set to launch.
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