KPMG’s global Commodity Insights Bulletins provide insights into major trends, issues, regulatory changes and key developments within key mining commodities – Copper, Diamond, Gold, Iron Ore, Metallurgical Coal, Nickel, Platinum, Thermal Coal, and Uranium.
Could a rebound be just around the corner?
In the last bulletin we considered how low prices could go. As it turned out, to a five year low of $2.44.
The past six months were even more difficult than anticipated some six months ago. Platinum prices continued downwards to five year lows and consensus prices estimates indicate that 2014 price levels will only be reached in 2017.
In the short term, the ongoing surge in low-cost supply –driven by both brownfield mine expansions and productivity improvements – will continue to put pressure on the price of iron ore as it outstrips the increase in demand.
The uranium market remains on hold waiting for the right signals.
Like many in the industry, I am bullish on the long-term prospects of coal in general. Shorter-term, we are seeing improvements in pricing – albeit not at the levels we’d experienced just a few years ago.
There is a saying that good things come to those that wait.
The long-term fundamentals of the uranium industry remain
strong on the demand side but the medium-term outlook
remains in neutral, waiting for a kick start.
This year has seen miners intensify their efforts to ramp up production while adopting aggressive cost minimization and efficiency initiatives. This has been and remains critical as they seek to manage the impacts of falling copper prices.
The confirmation of the ban of Indonesian ore exports in early January 2014 has helped drive nickel prices higher.
The past 6 months have been extremely difficult for the platinum industry. In our last bulletin, we anticipated that the next 6 months would be bumpy