For the third consecutive year, the KPMG survey of 200 C-level global auto executives found that Volkswagen is the automaker most likely to gain market share over the next five years.
In fact, 81 percent of respondents expect gains for VW, up from 70 percent in last year’s survey.
BMW also saw a significant increase this year, jumping to 70 percent from 63 percent a year ago. For the first time in the survey’s 14-year history, BMW places second among the major automakers predicted to gain share, ahead of perennial favorites Hyundai and Toyota.
Since 2011, executive perceptions of Hyundai’s ability to gain market share have receded. In the 2013 survey, 61 percent predict gains for the automaker, down from 63 percent in 2012 and 72 percent in 2011. Conversely, Toyota, which historically has fared well in the survey, experienced two down years in 2011 and 2012 but experienced the largest increase of any automaker this year – 68 percent of execs predict market share gains for Toyota, up from just 44 percent last year and 40 percent in 2011.
“Volkswagen continues to be a powerhouse, with consistent market share gains in the U.S. and abroad,” said Gary Silberg, national automotive industry leader for KPMG LLP. “It is very interesting to see a luxury brand like BMW jump into the second spot, a sign that the automaker’s strategy and vehicles continue to impress the industry. The most noteworthy finding was the dramatic increase for Toyota, an illustration that the company is moving past the recalls and other issues of the past two years and looking to regain its prominent position among the global auto giants.”
U.S. OEMs in strong position
Continuing the trend of the 2011 and 2012 KPMG auto surveys, many executives also think Ford, GM and Chrysler are likely to grow market share. In fact, GM’s projections jumped six percentage points among global execs to place the OEM in a tie with Ford for 6th out of the 15 major OEM market share projections. This optimism represents a complete turnaround from KPMG’s 2009 survey, when Ford, General Motors and Chrysler were emerging from their respective restructuring and two-thirds of executives expected the OEMs to lose market share through 2013.
When asked to predict global market share winners over the next five years, 44 percent of the auto execs believed Ford, ranked 15th, would register market share gains, down slightly from 47 percent in 2012, but up from 43 percent in 2011 and 29 percent in 2010. Executive confidence behind GM saw a boost in the 2013 KPMG survey, with 44 percent predicting market share gains in the next five years, up from 40 percent in 2011, and just 13 percent in 2010. Thirty-seven percent of executives expect the combined Fiat/Chrysler Group to gain market share close to the 39 percent in 2012, up drastically from 24 percent in 2011.
“Clearly the investments in new products and product innovation that the U.S. OEMs have made over the over the past several years have helped U.S. auto manufacturers become more competitive,” said Silberg. “Moreover, it is a clear indication that perceptions of U.S. automakers and auto quality continue to improve.”
Silberg added, “As recent sales figures demonstrate, U.S. OEMs have much stronger product portfolios, and as a result they are recording record profitability despite a sluggish economy.”
Chinese Manufacturers expected to grow
According to the 2013 KPMG survey, when combining the major auto brands with newer emerging brands, four of the top 10 fastest growing manufacturers are from China. The likely market share gainers, as predicted by the global executives, include Volkswagen (Germany)(#1, same as 2012), BMW (Germany)(#2, #3 in 2012), BAIC Motor Co (China)(#3, #5 in 2012), Toyota (Japan)(#4, #11 in 2012), Hyundai/Kia (Korea)(#5, #2 in 2012), SAIC Motor Corp (China)(#6, same in 2012), FAW Motors (China)(#7, N/A in 2012), Geely (China)(#8, #10 in 2012), Nissan (Japan)(#9, same in 2012), Tata (India) (#10, #4 in 2012).
“The Chinese OEMs continue to be perceived winners,” said Silberg. “But, given their lower current base market share levels, it is not surprising to see predicted market share growth for brands such as BAIC and FAW, although the majority of that growth will come from their domestic markets in the short-term.”
The brands most often predicted to lose market share in the 2013 survey include Subaru, Mitsubishi, Mazda and Suzuki. According to the KPMG survey, executives say the BRIC countries will see the most significant increases in domestic vehicle production and sales over the next five years, and Mexico continues to gain momentum as a production hub.
For the KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey 2013, KPMG interviewed 200 C-class global automotive executives, including 22 from North America, representing vehicle manufacturers and suppliers, in November 2012. KPMG has released an annual survey of automotive executives expressing their views on the state of the industry since 1999.
About KPMG LLP
KPMG LLP, the audit, tax and advisory firm (www.kpmg.com/us), is the U.S. member firm of KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International’s member firms have 152,000 professionals, including more than 8,600 partners, in 156 countries.
Contact: Manuel Goncalves
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