United Kingdom


  • Service: Insights, Economics
  • Type: Press release
  • Date: 25/01/2013

ONS Q4 UK GDP Figures: “Not yet a triple-dip recession, but not a recovery either” says KPMG Chief Economist 

  • Policy makers “likely to sit on their hands – a triumph of hope over experience”


Commenting on the Office for National Statistics’ preliminary estimate of UK Gross Domestic Product in the final quarter of 2012, KPMG Chief Economist, Andrew Smith, said:


“The 0.3 percent dip in Q4 GDP, partly reversing the third quarter rebound, does not technically put the UK back into recession, but hardly constitutes a recovery either.


“Linguistic quibbles apart, in big picture terms output has been pretty much flat overall for the last two years and remains some 3% below the pre-recession peak – the slowest ‘recovery’ on record. Weather-related disruption this month does not make for an encouraging start to 2013.


“For the moment policy makers look likely to sit on their hands – a triumph of hope over experience  - but, without a rethink, there is little reason to think 2013 will turn out any better than 2012. Another year of stagnation beckons.”




For further information please contact:
Margot Cowhig, KPMG Corporate Communications
Tel:  0207 694 4246 Mobile: 07920 274856: margot.cowhig@kpmg.co.uk


KPMG Press Office: 0207 694 8773


Notes to editors


About KPMG:


KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary of KPMG Europe LLP and operates from 22 offices across the UK with over 12,000 partners and staff.  The UK firm recorded a turnover of £1.8 billion in the year ended September 2012. KPMG is a global network of professional firms providing Audit, Tax, and Advisory services. We operate in 156 countries and have 152,000 professionals working in member firms around the world. The independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity.  KPMG International provides no client services.



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