As the survey results confirm, electromobility still has a long way to go before it can be regarded as a true replacement for the traditional internal combustion engine. Almost two-thirds of executives taking part believe that e-vehicles will not exceed 15 percent of annual global sales in 15 years’ time.
The East holds the key to e-mobility
Expected e-car shares differ considerably by country and region. Japanese respondents are by far the most optimistic, with almost half predicting e-vehicle sales to gain a 25 percent share of the domestic new car registrations in 2026, for a total of 1.4 million units. China also has relatively high expectations for e-mobility; a majority anticipates sales to be 11-15 percent of the total, which is higher than the US, Western Europe and the other BRIC nations.
And while these figures are relatively small percentage-wise, they still represent a huge opportunity in terms of actual vehicle numbers. With the Chinese market projected to reach 37.5 million in annual sales by 2026, e-cars could total between 4-6 million. The survey respondents’ answers suggest that by 2026, between 9 and 14 million new electrical vehicles will be registered in TRIAD and BRIC markets in total.
No clear winner among the various electrified technologies
Hybrids are expected to outsell battery-powered cars several times over in 13 years’ time. According to the survey, full and plug-in hybrids and fuel cell vehicles are likely to be in greatest demand, while battery cars with range extenders (like the Opel Ampera/Chevrolet Volt or the A1 E-Tron) should edge ahead of pure electric cars.
Respondents from the BRIC nations believe fuel cell-powered vehicles will attract more consumer demand than battery electrified vehicles, with the exception of China, where pure battery-powered vehicles are expected to come out on top.
