Jose Luis Blasco, Head of Sustainability Advisory Services at KPMG in Spain:
The transformation required by a global agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, such as that proposed, would have a substantial impact on many economic sectors, particularly in developed countries.
However, the business community is divided between those perplexed by the speed at which negotiations are moving forward in the current economic scenario, and others already trying to anticipate the new opportunities that will arise.
Narrator:
Greater investment in new and renewable energies and more efficient technologies
Those who anticipate opportunities recognize that an agreement would offer much greater certainty for investments in new and renewable energies and technological changes aimed at reducing emissions and achieving greater efficiency.
Significant changes in public investments and tax policy
An agreement in Copenhagen would also result in substantial changes in public investments and tax policy, favoring a shift towards a low-carbon economy and sanctioning GHG emissions. These changes could especially impact what is known as the “diffuse sectors” through taxes.
Strengthening carbon markets
There would also be an immediate effect on the strength of the carbon markets. According to the World Bank, in 2008 alone, the carbon markets moved approximately US$127 billion despite current financial difficulties. In just a few years, we can expect an emergence of new carbon markets, giving rise to a considerably larger global carbon market once these new markets become interlinked.
Generation of “Green Collar” jobs
This transformation is expected to generate millions of “green collar” jobs. In the United States, the Department of Energy calculates that at least 260,000 new jobs will be created each year if wind power production targets are met.
The main challenge to be faced: Carbon leakage, Protectionism
Depending on the depth of the transformation, new cases of off-shoring emissions could arise, by transferring strategic or emissions-heavy industries, such as steel, cement or paper, to those countries not subject to restrictions, a phenomenon known as “carbon leakage”.
On the other hand, protectionist attempts on the part of certain states could try to keep their emissions-heavy industries within borders.
Jose Luis Blasco, Head of Sustainability Advisory Services at KPMG in Spain:
The success of the Copenhagen Summit therefore lies not only in achieving an ambitious emission reduction target. It also depends on two key factors: the design of a suitable framework that boosts the economy for the next decade and the need to identify entrepreneurs with the foresight to make this a reality.