Bill Michael, Head of Financial Services at KPMG in the UK, said: “Banking remains at the cross-roads. Having made strong progress since the dark days of the credit crisis, rising concerns over sovereign debt could put them right back into difficult territory. There are some large potential exposures amongst European banks. Looking forward, the real impact of the wave of regulatory change will begin to bite. The debt problem has not gone away, it has shifted from banks to governments. Many believe the future looks ominous as we enter an age of financial austerity.”
Regulatory capital requirements under Basel III will be challenging and will affect profitability and return on equity of banks. All the banks in KPMG’s survey have disclosed their Basel II capital adequacy ratios which in general have gone up, with an average rate of 14.83% in 2010 compared to 14.41% in 2009. A third of banks indicated their ability to meet the new Basel III requirements in 2013 but many highlighted areas of detail that need further development and implementation by national supervisors. Nevertheless banks are moving to improve the quality of their capital, reporting an increase in Core Tier 1 capital in 2010, with first quarter 2011 statements tending to confirm an ongoing trend.
Tighter regulation brings higher costs but beyond the cost issue a concern for many banks is the disparity of regulation around the world. Some countries are making strident changes to their regulation – while other jurisdictions, seeming to regard the credit crisis of 2007/08 as a European and US issue, are not. This could put some banks at a competitive disadvantage and create uncertainties.
It is sovereign debt, however, that is the greatest current concern. Much more space is devoted to sovereign debt in 2010 annual reports compared to 2009 – but the speed of developments could not have been foreseen at the time the annual reports were prepared. The potential impact on the banking sector has become an issue of growing concern. The latest round of European Banking Authority stress tests require the banks to disclose sovereign debt exposure by accounting portfolios, maturities and countries.
The banks also have €92.5bn of deferred tax assets (broadly, losses held against tax liability) on their balance sheets, equating to around €334bn of probable future taxable profits that need to be generated to recover them. In these uncertain times, the view on availability of future profits could change quickly, resulting in the potential write down of some balances.
Colin Martin, partner in KPMG’s Financial Services practice, said: “Our report highlights a trend of banks returning to core banking activities by focusing on customer relationships and cutting costs. The question remains as to whether tumultuous markets allow them to continue this trend.”
Notes to editors:
KPMG’s report Focus on Transparency analyses the 2010 annual reports of 15 European banks: Barclays, BBVA, BNP Paribas, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, ING, Lloyds Banking Group, Nordea, Royal Bank of Scotland, Santander, Société Générale, Standard Chartered, UBS and Unicredit.
An executive summary of the report can be accessed at www.kpmg.co.uk/banking
Media enquiries to:
Mark Hamilton, KPMG Corporate Communications 020 7694 2687
KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary of KPMG Europe LLP and operates from 22 offices across the UK with nearly 11,000 partners and staff. The UK firm recorded a turnover of £1.6 billion in the year ended September 2010. KPMG is a global network of professional firms providing Audit, Tax, and Advisory services. We operate in 150 countries and have more than 138,000 professionals working in member firms around the world. The independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. KPMG International provides no client services.