• Type: KPMG information, Press release
  • Date: 1/18/2010

China M&A activity on the rise in 2010, forecasts KPMG Global M&A Predictor 

Hong Kong, 18 January 2010


KPMG International's annual Global M&A Predictor forecasts a substantial increase in deal-making appetite in China for the coming year, due to resilience in the domestic stock markets, rising demand for energy and resources and further consolidation within the consumer and telecom sectors.


KPMG's Global M&A Predictor tracks 12 month forward Price to Earnings (PE) multiples and estimated net debt to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) ratios to track and establish the potential direction of M&A activity.


On a Global basis, forward PE ratios are now seven percent higher (at 14.0x for 2010 versus 13.1x for 2009) while net debt to EBITDA ratios are expected to decline by 18 percent from 1.5x to 1.2x. For the ASPAC region (excluding Japan) forward PE ratios are at 35 percent.


In contrast Mainland China exhibits a much higher increase of PE ratios, at 36 percent from 10.6x to 14.4x. This is also significantly higher than 15 percent and 16 percent for Hong Kong and Taiwan respectively. Improving forward PE ratios indicate enhanced deal-making appetite while declining net debt to EBITDA ratios equate to improved deal-making capacity.


Commenting on the China forecast, Paul Chau, Head of M&A Advisory at KPMG Corporate Finance Hong Kong and a partner in the China firm, said: "China is playing catch up. As the world's second largest economy it currently accounts for less than 8 percent of Global deals. In recent months we have therefore seen a surge in M&A activity with corporate-to-corporate leading the way, closely followed by private equity firms."


On the net debt to EBITDA ratios, China net debt to EBITDA ratio declines 18 percent from 1.1x to 0.9x compared with that of 16% for Hong Kong from 0.6x to 0.5x. Taiwan companies included in the KPMG's Global 1,000 Index still sits on net cash and hence the net debt to EBITDA ratio remains negative. AsPac (exc. Japan) meanwhile forecasts a decline of 20 percent from 1.5x to 1.2x.


Paul Chau noted interesting trends across several sectors: "A number of sub-sectors are still fragmented within consumer markets in Mainland China. We have recently seen consolidation in the food and beverage sector due to intensifying competition and stricter regulations. Within the retail sector, we also see consolidation amongst the domestic players due to large overseas entrants in the market and the need therefore to be increasingly cost-competitive. The Chinese Government has also recently announced plans to encourage industry consolidation and restructuring in a number of technology sub-sectors, with a view to creating a home-grown industry leaders in this space," he said.


"In addition, the re-opening of the IPO market in China, including the launch of the Growth Enterprise Market in Shenzhen, has created tremendous momentum in the IPO pipeline, with over 200 companies waiting to be listed in 2010. The availability of exits through IPOS is being reflected in the recent surge in PE deals. We therefore expect to see very strong deal closings in the first half of 2010," he added.



- Ends -


About the Global M&A Predictor:


KPMG's Global M&A Predictor tracks 12 month forward Price to Earnings (PE) multiples and estimated net debt to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) ratios to track and establish the potential direction of M&A activity.

Where possible, earnings and EBITDA data is on a pre-exceptionals basis with the exception of Japan, for which GAAP has been used.


KPMG's Global 1,000 Index (against which the Predictor is calculated) comprises 1,000 of the largest companies in the world by market capitalization.

All raw data within the Predictor is sourced from Thomson Reuters. KPMG Corporate Finance calculates 12 months forward PE data for each region and sector. This tool is used due to its transparency, the ready availability of data and widespread acceptance in the investment community. Our PEs test for "paper appetite" i.e. the relative preparedness of companies, sectors and regions to originate deals on the basis of share values only.


Net debt to EBITDA is a respected ratio which indicates capital structure and financial gearing. This ratio tests for "debt capacity" - that is, the relative ability of companies, sectors and regions to originate deals using debt only.


KPMG's Global M&A Predictor attempts to identify changes over time that could imply trends in appetite for deals and indeed capacity for deals. It also attempts to compare and contrast sector regions to highlight possible areas of deal flow. (Note: Net debt/EBITDA ratio calculations are considered not relevant (for the Predictor's purposes) in the financial services and property sectors. These sectors have therefore been excluded from this analysis.)


About KPMG International

KPMG is a global network of professional firms providing Audit, Tax and Advisory services. We operate in 144 countries and have 140,000 people working in member firms around the world. The independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. Each KPMG firm is a legally distinct and separate entity and describes itself as such.

The financial information set forth on these pages represents composite-not consolidated-information of the separate member firms of KPMG International that perform professional services for clients and is combined here solely for presentation purposes. KPMG International performs no professional services for clients.


About KPMG China
KPMG China has 12 offices in Beijing, Shenyang, Qingdao, Shanghai, Nanjing, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Fuzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong SAR and Macau SAR, with more than 9,500 professionals

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KPMG China

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