The growth rate of China’s GDP in the second quarter was 7.5 percent, 0.2 percentage points lower than in the first quarter. The growth rate for the first half of the year was 7.6 percent. This is in line with our view in the Q1 report, that “the risk of further downward pressure on China’s economic growth is getting bigger” and “the key issue is not the decline of the short-term growth rate, but a potential slowdown of the long-term economic growth.” While the Chinese economy’s potential growth rate is slowing down, the driving effect of the economic stimulus is gradually becoming weaker, and a debt crisis is forming. To ensure sustainable growth, the Chinese economy needs to make some adjustments.
In the second quarter, China’s overseas investment continued to grow steadily. Non-financial direct outbound investment kept increasing, and the US emerged as the country that attracted the largest amount of investment from China. For the first time, private enterprises outpaced SOEs in terms of both value and deal numbers in overseas M&A. The overall prospects for outbound investment look bright.