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From an economic perspective, two factors stand at the forefront: There's the Chinese economy for one, which has seen rather disappointing performance recently. If that continues, we have to expect some negative repercussions. Europe is the second unknown. At the moment, nobody can say how the political situation will develop. Historically speaking, we are in a unique situation, which means that we cannot simply draw conclusions from past events. While a certain amount of calm has returned at present, this is mainly attributable to the fact that elections are around the corner in Germany and any statements being made are relatively cautious. My hypothesis is that unrest could pick up again this autumn or winter. For us that means that we can only observe and then react to whatever happens – come what may.
One is certainly the growing population which is providing for a robust domestic economy at the moment. It’s also obvious, however, that population growth goes hand in hand with social tension, something that the political world in particular still needs to learn how to handle.
Director of the
KOF Swiss Economic Institute of ETH
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